Events are almost assuredly off the calendar for 2020, but let's just say for a moment that you'd attempt to pull one off.

Not like that hasn't happened in other places in the country or even Illinois for that matter.

You'd think at this point there wouldn't even be a second thought about setting up or going to a gathering of more than 50 people, but who knows, anything is possible, and after all, it is 2020.

That's where this new handy COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Map comes into play. The results are really intriguing.

The risk level is the estimated chance (0-100%) that at least 1 COVID-19 positive individual will be present at an event in a county, given the size of the event.

The map also believes that there are 10 times more positive cases than being reported. If you feel differently, you can always drop it down a tick to 5 times more. Either way, the number is probably somewhere in the middle.

From there, you'd choose the size of the event, for example, let's say 100 people at an event in Winnebago County.

According to the map, there's a 50% chance there's at least one person in attendance who has COVID-19. If that's the case, there's probably going to be more by the time the event is over.

When you drop the number to a 10 person event in Winnebago County, the probability drops to 7%.

Messing around with the size of the event reveals that any gathering of more than 500 people, brings a 99% chance someone there has COVID-19.

Long story short, while we're making inroads to defeating COVID-19 in Illinois, large group gatherings are still off the table.

The map has listings for every county in the US, and risk percentages for each are different. If you have time, check it out.

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Sweet Lenny is the brand manager of 97ZOK, Q98.5, and Operations Manager for Townsquare Media Rockford. Catch him afternoons 3 to 7 on 97ZOK. Follow him on Twitter, Instagram, and like his page on Facebook.

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